If you are a frequent reader of 3DPrint.com, then you are probably pretty excited about what this technology will eventually mean for society as a whole. While the phrase ‘Third Industrial Revolution’ is frequently used when describing 3D printing, I prefer something more like the ‘Holy Crap! That Can’t be Real’ Revolution. This is because every day when sifting through dozens of emails and leads for stories I think to myself (and sometimes even say it out loud if no one is around to possibly commit me), “Holy crap, that can’t be real.”
I’ve found that in the short time I’ve been covering the 3D printing industry the frequency of this phase popping into my head has been increasing. For instance, just these last few weeks we have seen two new 3D printers able to print at speeds which seem almost impossible, several planned animal studies on 3D printed body parts, and yet another 3D printed car. With all this happening there is plenty of speculation as to when things will really begin to get crazy.
“When?” That’s probably the most frequently used word when people approach me to talk about this incredible technology. It gets tiring, so I thought I would write a short article with my personal predictions (based on facts, interviews, and personal feelings) as to WHEN certain 3D printing milestones may occur.
When will I be able to buy a 3D printed car?
Local Motors is really the only company that’s doing anything like this with any success. Yes we did recently do a story about a car in China that was 3D printed, but they basically just took the chassis of another vehicle and put a 3D printed shell on top. Local Motors is clearly well ahead of the competition, and although a 3D printed car may seem impractical, there are numerous benifits from safety to customization to affordability.
“Imagine walking into one of our stores, walking up to a screen, choosing one of 9 bodies, choosing one of 4 powertrains, like electric, natural gas, diesel, etc, choosing your tires and wheels, your color and pressing ‘Go’ — and having those sorts of ranges of choices, that’s what we are driving for,” Fishkin told 3DPrint.com.
It will be interesting to watch as many new customization options will slowly become available for these vehicles, which should cost somewhere between $18,000 and $30,000 each, as they begin rolling out by the end of this year.
What about 3D printed homes? When can I have my next house 3D printed?
With an expected price of $200,000 or more, these machines will require a significant capital expenditure from construction companies; however, they would likely pay for themselves in a few years based on labor cost savings.
What about 3D printing structures on the Moon?
“It is not impossible to see the technology being deployed on the Moon in ten years,” Khoshnevis told us.
When will we be 3D printing entire human organs?
Keith Murphy, CEO of Organovo, stated that his company will be able to 3D print partial organs within the next 4-6 years. These partial organs could be used to repair damaged organs, such as the liver, providing valuable time to patients as they await a full transplant. Others have predicted that a 3D printed human liver could be about 10 years away. Whether this estimation accounts for all the red tape required to actually implant such an organ into a human body it’s really anyone’s guess.
My personal thoughts on this, based on what I have seen in terms of progress in the field, and after speaking with Murphy and others within the space, is that we are likely 15 years away from an actual 3D printed liver, kidney, or heart being transplanted into a human. Substantial progress is being made, but unforeseen problem can always emerge. Researchers need to figure out a reliable way of producing the complicated vascular networks found within a human organ. Once this is done, progress should be rather rapid. Being a 33-year-old male, I feel rather confident that such technology will be available in my lifetime, and probably even my parents’ lifetime. We will have to check back in 2030 to see how accurate this prediction is, however.
What do you guys think? Do these estimates seem about right to you? Let’s hear your thoughts in the 3D Printing Predictions forum thread on 3DPB.com.